In terms of losses, what do you think the worst day in casino history is?
Casinos are known for making/taking money from their guests. “The house always wins,” as they say.
Turns out, that’s not always true. Here’s why it matters for SHTF Intelligence.
By far, the worst loss in casino history was well over $100 million. In 2003, a Sigfried and Roy show was ended when a performing tiger mauled illusionist Roy Horn. The show’s multi-million dollar end, plus other damages, cost the casino big time.
Risk managers had taken out an insurance policy in case a tiger attacked an audience member, but they failed to consider a type of off-model risk. A black swan, if you will.
In his book, The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses another off-model risk. While trying to avoid losses at the betting table, one casino nearly lost its operating license after an employee failed to turn in some forms to the state licensing office.
Risk managers consumed with win and loss rates didn’t factor in the potential that their casino could be shut down due to a few forms.
As opposed to on-model risks, these off-model risks constitute potentially foreseeable events that were never considered.
So what does this have to do with SHTF Intelligence?
My question for those in the preparedness community is: What are your off-model risks?
Millions of Americans are planning for an EMP, a grid-down environment, an economic collapse, or some other catastrophic event. These risks have been well-documented. There are likely area threats that you’ve failed to consider.
One reason why I’m adamant about conducting an Area Study is that we’re certain to overlook some obvious risks, threats, and vulnerabilities if we don’t conduct a methodical and systematic examination of our operating environment.
What SHTF Intelligence allows us to do is get these off-model risks onto our list of on-model risks.
You can take a free email course on the Area Study here: https://forwardobserver.com/area-study-ecourse/
In that email course, you’ll learn about what goes into an Area Study, where to find that information, and how to build an intelligence product that drives preparedness and security planning.
If you have any questions, just reply to this email. I’d love to hear from you and talk more about intelligence.
Always Out Front,
PS. You should take me up on the Area Study eCourse. It’s five simple emails with tons of knowledge that will help you better plan for an SHTF event. Sign up here: https://forwardobserver.com/area-study-ecourse/
Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.
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This content was originally published here.